First Round · 2023-24
4 games · Minnesota Timberwolves advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
PHX 95@
MIN 12028·23·21·23 / 27·34·31·2863%Game 2Apr 23PHX 93@MIN 10521·30·20·22 / 24·26·28·2767%Game 3Apr 26MIN 126@PHX 10934·25·36·31 / 32·21·20·3646%Game 4Apr 28MIN 122@PHX 11625·31·34·32 / 26·35·31·2450%
PHX 95@MIN 12028·23·21·23 / 27·34·31·2863%Game 2Apr 23PHX 93@MIN 10521·30·20·22 / 24·26·28·2767%Game 3Apr 26MIN 126@PHX 10934·25·36·31 / 32·21·20·3646%Game 4Apr 28MIN 122@PHX 11625·31·34·32 / 26·35·31·2450%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
56.3%
Brier over the series
0.1990
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.