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Hardwood
2023-24 season

First Round · 2023-24

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks

2

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

6 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 21Indiana PacersIND 94@Milwaukee BucksMIL 10921·21·29·23 / 30·39·14·2650%Game 2Apr 23Indiana PacersIND 125@Milwaukee BucksMIL 10830·30·32·33 / 26·29·28·2546%Game 3Apr 26Milwaukee BucksMIL 118@Indiana PacersIND 121OT22·33·28·28 / 39·28·23·2171%Game 4Apr 28Milwaukee BucksMIL 113@Indiana PacersIND 12633·31·21·28 / 33·34·31·2871%Game 5Apr 30Indiana PacersIND 92@Milwaukee BucksMIL 11531·17·19·25 / 23·30·34·2847%Game 6May 2Milwaukee BucksMIL 98@Indiana PacersIND 12024·23·31·20 / 33·26·34·2767%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

58.6%

Brier over the series

0.1841

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works