NBA Finals · 2023-24
5 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 6
DAL 89@
BOS 10720·22·24·23 / 37·26·23·2171%Game 2Jun 9DAL 98@BOS 10528·23·23·24 / 25·29·29·2273%Game 3Jun 12BOS 106@DAL 9930·20·35·21 / 31·20·19·2950%Game 4Jun 14BOS 84@DAL 12221·14·25·24 / 34·27·31·3048%Game 5Jun 17DAL 88@BOS 10618·28·21·21 / 28·39·19·2068%
DAL 89@BOS 10720·22·24·23 / 37·26·23·2171%Game 2Jun 9DAL 98@BOS 10528·23·23·24 / 25·29·29·2273%Game 3Jun 12BOS 106@DAL 9930·20·35·21 / 31·20·19·2950%Game 4Jun 14BOS 84@DAL 12221·14·25·24 / 34·27·31·3048%Game 5Jun 17DAL 88@BOS 10618·28·21·21 / 28·39·19·2068%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
62.1%
Brier over the series
0.1554
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.