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Hardwood
2006-07 season

First Round · 2006-07

Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets

3

final
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz

4

7 games · Utah Jazz advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 21Utah JazzUTAH 75@Houston RocketsHOU 8419·23·11·22 / 20·13·26·2570%Game 2Apr 23Utah JazzUTAH 90@Houston RocketsHOU 9826·15·21·28 / 17·22·28·3172%Game 3Apr 26Houston RocketsHOU 67@Utah JazzUTAH 8117·25·10·15 / 23·25·13·2058%Game 4Apr 28Houston RocketsHOU 85@Utah JazzUTAH 9821·24·17·23 / 19·31·33·1561%Game 5Apr 30Utah JazzUTAH 92@Houston RocketsHOU 9623·21·28·20 / 21·22·25·2865%Game 6May 3Houston RocketsHOU 82@Utah JazzUTAH 9422·21·19·20 / 20·26·22·2661%Game 7May 5Utah JazzUTAH 103@Houston RocketsHOU 9929·24·22·28 / 22·21·24·3236%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

6 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

60.4%

Brier over the series

0.1692

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works