First Round · 2006-07
5 games · Phoenix Suns advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 22
LAL 87@
PHX 9523·25·29·10 / 18·21·35·2186%Game 2Apr 24LAL 98@PHX 12625·22·23·28 / 31·37·27·3186%Game 3Apr 26PHX 89@LAL 9531·20·19·19 / 17·31·26·2139%Game 4Apr 29PHX 113@LAL 10033·25·27·28 / 28·23·20·2957%Game 5May 2LAL 110@PHX 11923·29·33·25 / 33·31·27·2886%
LAL 87@PHX 9523·25·29·10 / 18·21·35·2186%Game 2Apr 24LAL 98@PHX 12625·22·23·28 / 31·37·27·3186%Game 3Apr 26PHX 89@LAL 9531·20·19·19 / 17·31·26·2139%Game 4Apr 29PHX 113@LAL 10033·25·27·28 / 28·23·20·2957%Game 5May 2LAL 110@PHX 11923·29·33·25 / 33·31·27·2886%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
71.0%
Brier over the series
0.1217
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.