Conference Semifinals · 2006-07
6 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
BKN 77@
CLE 8120·21·18·18 / 23·20·16·2277%Game 2May 8BKN 92@CLE 10228·17·28·19 / 24·24·26·2876%Game 3May 12CLE 85@BKN 9615·28·21·21 / 22·23·28·2353%Game 4May 14CLE 87@BKN 8519·23·29·16 / 20·26·23·1644%Game 5May 16BKN 83@CLE 7224·23·30·6 / 18·21·20·1326%Game 6May 18CLE 88@BKN 7232·21·8·27 / 15·23·22·1242%
BKN 77@CLE 8120·21·18·18 / 23·20·16·2277%Game 2May 8BKN 92@CLE 10228·17·28·19 / 24·24·26·2876%Game 3May 12CLE 85@BKN 9615·28·21·21 / 22·23·28·2353%Game 4May 14CLE 87@BKN 8519·23·29·16 / 20·26·23·1644%Game 5May 16BKN 83@CLE 7224·23·30·6 / 18·21·20·1326%Game 6May 18CLE 88@BKN 7232·21·8·27 / 15·23·22·1242%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
53.1%
Brier over the series
0.2543
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.