First Round · 2006-07
4 games · Detroit Pistons advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 21
ORL 92@
DET 10016·27·24·25 / 28·23·30·1975%Game 2Apr 23ORL 90@DET 9822·22·15·31 / 28·19·24·2776%Game 3Apr 26DET 93@ORL 7723·25·23·22 / 23·19·19·1649%Game 4Apr 28DET 97@ORL 9322·25·26·24 / 25·21·21·2654%
ORL 92@DET 10016·27·24·25 / 28·23·30·1975%Game 2Apr 23ORL 90@DET 9822·22·15·31 / 28·19·24·2776%Game 3Apr 26DET 93@ORL 7723·25·23·22 / 23·19·19·1649%Game 4Apr 28DET 97@ORL 9322·25·26·24 / 25·21·21·2654%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
63.5%
Brier over the series
0.1483
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.