Conference Semifinals · 2006-07
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
SA 111@
PHX 10627·24·26·34 / 26·27·22·3132%Game 2May 8SA 81@PHX 10125·17·22·17 / 19·30·22·3065%Game 3May 12PHX 101@SA 10830·23·19·29 / 25·30·25·2865%Game 4May 14PHX 104@SA 9824·16·32·32 / 22·23·35·1833%Game 5May 16SA 88@PHX 8513·20·23·32 / 24·20·18·2331%Game 6May 18PHX 106@SA 11423·28·16·39 / 23·30·28·3365%
SA 111@PHX 10627·24·26·34 / 26·27·22·3132%Game 2May 8SA 81@PHX 10125·17·22·17 / 19·30·22·3065%Game 3May 12PHX 101@SA 10830·23·19·29 / 25·30·25·2865%Game 4May 14PHX 104@SA 9824·16·32·32 / 22·23·35·1833%Game 5May 16SA 88@PHX 8513·20·23·32 / 24·20·18·2331%Game 6May 18PHX 106@SA 11423·28·16·39 / 23·30·28·3365%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.4%
Brier over the series
0.2925
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.