Conference Finals · 2006-07
5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 20
UTAH 100@
SA 10820·16·26·38 / 22·32·24·3070%Game 2May 22UTAH 96@SA 10524·17·24·31 / 26·32·23·2474%Game 3May 26SA 83@UTAH 10923·24·20·16 / 15·28·32·3455%Game 4May 28SA 91@UTAH 7921·29·13·28 / 20·22·20·1738%Game 5May 30UTAH 84@SA 10915·24·17·28 / 34·21·28·2674%
UTAH 100@SA 10820·16·26·38 / 22·32·24·3070%Game 2May 22UTAH 96@SA 10524·17·24·31 / 26·32·23·2474%Game 3May 26SA 83@UTAH 10923·24·20·16 / 15·28·32·3455%Game 4May 28SA 91@UTAH 7921·29·13·28 / 20·22·20·1738%Game 5May 30UTAH 84@SA 10915·24·17·28 / 34·21·28·2674%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
62.3%
Brier over the series
0.1613
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.