NBA Finals · 2006-07
4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 7
CLE 76@
SA 8515·20·14·27 / 20·20·24·2173%Game 2Jun 10CLE 92@SA 10317·16·29·30 / 28·30·31·1474%Game 3Jun 12SA 75@CLE 7216·24·15·20 / 18·20·12·2244%Game 4Jun 14SA 83@CLE 8219·20·21·23 / 20·14·18·3046%
CLE 76@SA 8515·20·14·27 / 20·20·24·2173%Game 2Jun 10CLE 92@SA 10317·16·29·30 / 28·30·31·1474%Game 3Jun 12SA 75@CLE 7216·24·15·20 / 18·20·12·2244%Game 4Jun 14SA 83@CLE 8219·20·21·23 / 20·14·18·3046%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
59.4%
Brier over the series
0.1854
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.