First Round · 2006-07
5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 22
DEN 95@
SA 8921·23·23·28 / 16·26·24·2325%Game 2Apr 25DEN 88@SA 9718·23·19·28 / 24·25·25·2373%Game 3Apr 28SA 96@DEN 9122·21·32·21 / 25·15·27·2442%Game 4Apr 30SA 96@DEN 8920·22·25·29 / 27·23·23·1643%Game 5May 2DEN 78@SA 9321·27·11·19 / 25·19·19·3076%
DEN 95@SA 8921·23·23·28 / 16·26·24·2325%Game 2Apr 25DEN 88@SA 9718·23·19·28 / 24·25·25·2373%Game 3Apr 28SA 96@DEN 9122·21·32·21 / 25·15·27·2442%Game 4Apr 30SA 96@DEN 8920·22·25·29 / 27·23·23·1643%Game 5May 2DEN 78@SA 9321·27·11·19 / 25·19·19·3076%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
51.6%
Brier over the series
0.2723
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.