Conference Semifinals · 2006-07
5 games · Utah Jazz advanced
Every game
Game 1May 7
GS 112@
UTAH 11635·31·23·23 / 37·26·21·3258%Game 2May 9GS 117@UTAH 127OT31·27·31·24 / 28·35·27·2361%Game 3May 11UTAH 105@GS 12527·22·36·20 / 30·40·34·2168%Game 4May 13UTAH 115@GS 10125·25·25·40 / 23·26·29·2330%Game 5May 15GS 87@UTAH 10032·22·19·14 / 29·23·25·2364%
GS 112@UTAH 11635·31·23·23 / 37·26·21·3258%Game 2May 9GS 117@UTAH 127OT31·27·31·24 / 28·35·27·2361%Game 3May 11UTAH 105@GS 12527·22·36·20 / 30·40·34·2168%Game 4May 13UTAH 115@GS 10125·25·25·40 / 23·26·29·2330%Game 5May 15GS 87@UTAH 10032·22·19·14 / 29·23·25·2364%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
56.2%
Brier over the series
0.2103
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.