First Round · 2006-07
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 22
WSH 82@
CLE 9720·21·26·15 / 27·21·26·2382%Game 2Apr 25WSH 102@CLE 10923·25·15·39 / 23·28·24·3484%Game 3Apr 28CLE 98@WSH 9226·35·16·21 / 22·22·31·1758%Game 4Apr 30CLE 97@WSH 9022·22·22·31 / 23·24·20·2360%
WSH 82@CLE 9720·21·26·15 / 27·21·26·2382%Game 2Apr 25WSH 102@CLE 10923·25·15·39 / 23·28·24·3484%Game 3Apr 28CLE 98@WSH 9226·35·16·21 / 22·22·31·1758%Game 4Apr 30CLE 97@WSH 9022·22·22·31 / 23·24·20·2360%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
70.9%
Brier over the series
0.0987
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.