Conference Semifinals · 2006-07
6 games · Detroit Pistons advanced
Every game
Game 1May 5
CHI 69@
DET 9523·18·16·12 / 29·25·16·2569%Game 2May 7CHI 87@DET 10818·25·19·25 / 34·24·25·2571%Game 3May 10DET 81@CHI 7418·10·32·21 / 20·24·17·1342%Game 4May 13DET 87@CHI 10219·24·13·31 / 27·23·27·2555%Game 5May 15CHI 108@DET 9231·28·33·16 / 25·26·20·2128%Game 6May 17DET 95@CHI 8528·15·31·21 / 23·25·21·1638%
CHI 69@DET 9523·18·16·12 / 29·25·16·2569%Game 2May 7CHI 87@DET 10818·25·19·25 / 34·24·25·2571%Game 3May 10DET 81@CHI 7418·10·32·21 / 20·24·17·1342%Game 4May 13DET 87@CHI 10219·24·13·31 / 27·23·27·2555%Game 5May 15CHI 108@DET 9231·28·33·16 / 25·26·20·2128%Game 6May 17DET 95@CHI 8528·15·31·21 / 23·25·21·1638%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
50.6%
Brier over the series
0.2696
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.