Conference Finals · 2006-07
6 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 21
CLE 76@
DET 7924·17·14·21 / 19·16·21·2371%Game 2May 24CLE 76@DET 7916·34·13·13 / 20·18·22·1972%Game 3May 27DET 82@CLE 8822·21·20·19 / 22·24·16·2657%Game 4May 29DET 87@CLE 9122·21·24·20 / 26·24·15·2660%Game 5May 31CLE 109@DET 1072OT23·28·19·21 / 29·23·18·2132%Game 6Jun 2DET 82@CLE 9821·27·18·16 / 27·21·19·3161%
CLE 76@DET 7924·17·14·21 / 19·16·21·2371%Game 2May 24CLE 76@DET 7916·34·13·13 / 20·18·22·1972%Game 3May 27DET 82@CLE 8822·21·20·19 / 22·24·16·2657%Game 4May 29DET 87@CLE 9122·21·24·20 / 26·24·15·2660%Game 5May 31CLE 109@DET 1072OT23·28·19·21 / 29·23·18·2132%Game 6Jun 2DET 82@CLE 9821·27·18·16 / 27·21·19·3161%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.0%
Brier over the series
0.1855
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.