First Round · 2006-07
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 22
GS 97@
DAL 8523·15·34·25 / 17·21·28·1922%Game 2Apr 25GS 99@DAL 11230·22·22·25 / 28·26·33·2575%Game 3Apr 27DAL 91@GS 10920·28·23·20 / 29·32·28·2057%Game 4Apr 29DAL 99@GS 10327·22·28·22 / 21·28·28·2660%Game 5May 1GS 112@DAL 11828·27·32·25 / 38·24·28·2868%Game 6May 3DAL 86@GS 11125·23·15·23 / 28·22·36·2562%
GS 97@DAL 8523·15·34·25 / 17·21·28·1922%Game 2Apr 25GS 99@DAL 11230·22·22·25 / 28·26·33·2575%Game 3Apr 27DAL 91@GS 10920·28·23·20 / 29·32·28·2057%Game 4Apr 29DAL 99@GS 10327·22·28·22 / 21·28·28·2660%Game 5May 1GS 112@DAL 11828·27·32·25 / 38·24·28·2868%Game 6May 3DAL 86@GS 11125·23·15·23 / 28·22·36·2562%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
57.2%
Brier over the series
0.2112
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.