First Round · 2007-08
6 games · Utah Jazz advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
UTAH 93@
HOU 8223·24·21·25 / 18·23·19·2239%Game 2Apr 21UTAH 90@HOU 8426·21·22·21 / 17·24·26·1741%Game 3Apr 24HOU 94@UTAH 9227·17·26·24 / 23·21·32·1626%Game 4Apr 26HOU 82@UTAH 8623·15·23·21 / 21·25·20·2072%Game 5Apr 29UTAH 69@HOU 9516·16·23·14 / 18·25·31·2158%Game 6May 2HOU 91@UTAH 11322·32·11·26 / 32·26·27·2867%
UTAH 93@HOU 8223·24·21·25 / 18·23·19·2239%Game 2Apr 21UTAH 90@HOU 8426·21·22·21 / 17·24·26·1741%Game 3Apr 24HOU 94@UTAH 9227·17·26·24 / 23·21·32·1626%Game 4Apr 26HOU 82@UTAH 8623·15·23·21 / 21·25·20·2072%Game 5Apr 29UTAH 69@HOU 9516·16·23·14 / 18·25·31·2158%Game 6May 2HOU 91@UTAH 11322·32·11·26 / 32·26·27·2867%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
50.3%
Brier over the series
0.2732
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.