NBA Finals · 2007-08
6 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 5
LAL 88@
BOS 9821·30·22·15 / 23·23·31·2162%Game 2Jun 8LAL 102@BOS 10822·20·19·41 / 20·34·29·2565%Game 3Jun 10BOS 81@LAL 8720·17·25·19 / 20·23·17·2769%Game 4Jun 12BOS 97@LAL 9114·26·31·26 / 35·23·15·1830%Game 5Jun 15BOS 98@LAL 10322·30·18·28 / 39·16·24·2467%Game 6Jun 17LAL 92@BOS 13120·15·25·32 / 24·34·31·4265%
LAL 88@BOS 9821·30·22·15 / 23·23·31·2162%Game 2Jun 8LAL 102@BOS 10822·20·19·41 / 20·34·29·2565%Game 3Jun 10BOS 81@LAL 8720·17·25·19 / 20·23·17·2769%Game 4Jun 12BOS 97@LAL 9114·26·31·26 / 35·23·15·1830%Game 5Jun 15BOS 98@LAL 10322·30·18·28 / 39·16·24·2467%Game 6Jun 17LAL 92@BOS 13120·15·25·32 / 24·34·31·4265%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.7%
Brier over the series
0.1805
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.