Conference Finals · 2007-08
5 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 21
SA 85@
LAL 8927·24·21·13 / 24·19·22·2474%Game 2May 23SA 71@LAL 10116·21·20·14 / 21·25·28·2773%Game 3May 25LAL 84@SA 10324·15·18·27 / 21·28·20·3454%Game 4May 27LAL 93@SA 9128·25·24·16 / 23·24·23·2141%Game 5May 29SA 92@LAL 10028·20·15·29 / 15·27·22·3673%
SA 85@LAL 8927·24·21·13 / 24·19·22·2474%Game 2May 23SA 71@LAL 10116·21·20·14 / 21·25·28·2773%Game 3May 25LAL 84@SA 10324·15·18·27 / 21·28·20·3454%Game 4May 27LAL 93@SA 9128·25·24·16 / 23·24·23·2141%Game 5May 29SA 92@LAL 10028·20·15·29 / 15·27·22·3673%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
62.9%
Brier over the series
0.1552
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.