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Hardwood
2007-08 season

Conference Semifinals · 2007-08

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers

4

final
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz

2

6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced

Every game

Game 1May 4Utah JazzUTAH 98@Los Angeles LakersLAL 10924·17·31·26 / 25·29·25·3075%Game 2May 7Utah JazzUTAH 110@Los Angeles LakersLAL 12018·31·34·27 / 33·30·30·2775%Game 3May 9Los Angeles LakersLAL 99@Utah JazzUTAH 10423·20·29·27 / 23·29·27·2556%Game 4May 11Los Angeles LakersLAL 115@Utah JazzUTAH 123OT21·34·20·33 / 31·24·24·2959%Game 5May 14Utah JazzUTAH 104@Los Angeles LakersLAL 11126·28·27·23 / 29·32·20·3072%Game 6May 16Los Angeles LakersLAL 108@Utah JazzUTAH 10533·29·24·22 / 20·23·27·3539%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

62.6%

Brier over the series

0.1567

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works