First Round · 2007-08
4 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
DEN 114@
LAL 12822·34·22·36 / 26·32·39·3176%Game 2Apr 23DEN 107@LAL 12232·17·30·28 / 33·26·30·3379%Game 3Apr 26LAL 102@DEN 8423·30·30·19 / 20·26·18·2046%Game 4Apr 28LAL 107@DEN 10132·32·15·28 / 23·31·23·2449%
DEN 114@LAL 12822·34·22·36 / 26·32·39·3176%Game 2Apr 23DEN 107@LAL 12232·17·30·28 / 33·26·30·3379%Game 3Apr 26LAL 102@DEN 8423·30·30·19 / 20·26·18·2046%Game 4Apr 28LAL 107@DEN 10132·32·15·28 / 23·31·23·2449%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
62.4%
Brier over the series
0.1640
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.