First Round · 2007-08
5 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
TOR 100@
ORL 11423·24·28·25 / 43·17·25·2980%Game 2Apr 22TOR 103@ORL 10418·39·21·25 / 35·24·24·2182%Game 3Apr 24ORL 94@TOR 10820·20·29·25 / 28·33·19·2846%Game 4Apr 26ORL 106@TOR 9431·17·25·33 / 26·27·21·2050%Game 5Apr 28TOR 92@ORL 10226·24·18·24 / 22·27·25·2880%
TOR 100@ORL 11423·24·28·25 / 43·17·25·2980%Game 2Apr 22TOR 103@ORL 10418·39·21·25 / 35·24·24·2182%Game 3Apr 24ORL 94@TOR 10820·20·29·25 / 28·33·19·2846%Game 4Apr 26ORL 106@TOR 9431·17·25·33 / 26·27·21·2050%Game 5Apr 28TOR 92@ORL 10226·24·18·24 / 22·27·25·2880%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
67.7%
Brier over the series
0.1304
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.