Conference Semifinals · 2007-08
5 games · Detroit Pistons advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
ORL 72@
DET 9122·20·16·14 / 22·21·22·2667%Game 2May 5ORL 93@DET 10029·11·36·17 / 29·21·28·2272%Game 3May 7DET 86@ORL 11116·26·27·17 / 30·24·19·3858%Game 4May 10DET 90@ORL 8921·23·26·20 / 27·28·15·1938%Game 5May 13ORL 86@DET 9120·21·27·18 / 20·27·18·2669%
ORL 72@DET 9122·20·16·14 / 22·21·22·2667%Game 2May 5ORL 93@DET 10029·11·36·17 / 29·21·28·2272%Game 3May 7DET 86@ORL 11116·26·27·17 / 30·24·19·3858%Game 4May 10DET 90@ORL 8921·23·26·20 / 27·28·15·1938%Game 5May 13ORL 86@DET 9120·21·27·18 / 20·27·18·2669%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
60.8%
Brier over the series
0.1686
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.