First Round · 2007-08
6 games · Detroit Pistons advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
PHI 90@
DET 8622·16·25·27 / 27·24·19·1619%Game 2Apr 23PHI 88@DET 10518·18·26·26 / 25·28·31·2179%Game 3Apr 25DET 75@PHI 9520·20·15·20 / 20·24·26·2547%Game 4Apr 27DET 93@PHI 8419·17·34·23 / 25·21·16·2247%Game 5Apr 29PHI 81@DET 9821·21·17·22 / 35·19·25·1976%Game 6May 1DET 100@PHI 7730·21·28·21 / 12·21·18·2653%
PHI 90@DET 8622·16·25·27 / 27·24·19·1619%Game 2Apr 23PHI 88@DET 10518·18·26·26 / 25·28·31·2179%Game 3Apr 25DET 75@PHI 9520·20·15·20 / 20·24·26·2547%Game 4Apr 27DET 93@PHI 8419·17·34·23 / 25·21·16·2247%Game 5Apr 29PHI 81@DET 9821·21·17·22 / 35·19·25·1976%Game 6May 1DET 100@PHI 7730·21·28·21 / 12·21·18·2653%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
53.5%
Brier over the series
0.2561
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.