SA v PHX · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2007-08

San Antonio Spurs

4

final

1

5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced

Every game

SA 1172OT24·24·23·22 / 20·20·25·2866%Game 2Apr 22

SA 10235·26·11·24 / 26·28·27·2168%Game 3Apr 25

PHX 9933·28·30·24 / 19·28·25·2737%Game 4Apr 27

PHX 10513·30·22·21 / 34·31·28·1259%Game 5Apr 29

SA 9226·19·27·15 / 30·24·15·2369%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

59.7%

Brier over the series

0.1770

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.