Conference Semifinals · 2007-08
7 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
SA 82@
NO 10127·22·17·16 / 23·22·29·2767%Game 2May 5SA 84@NO 10223·20·18·23 / 22·20·36·2470%Game 3May 8NO 99@SA 11023·33·22·21 / 21·33·29·2759%Game 4May 11NO 80@SA 10022·20·19·19 / 24·31·30·1563%Game 5May 13SA 79@NO 10123·24·11·21 / 21·23·28·2966%Game 6May 15NO 80@SA 9924·27·12·17 / 36·22·20·2160%Game 7May 19SA 91@NO 8223·28·20·20 / 20·22·14·2634%
SA 82@NO 10127·22·17·16 / 23·22·29·2767%Game 2May 5SA 84@NO 10223·20·18·23 / 22·20·36·2470%Game 3May 8NO 99@SA 11023·33·22·21 / 21·33·29·2759%Game 4May 11NO 80@SA 10022·20·19·19 / 24·31·30·1563%Game 5May 13SA 79@NO 10123·24·11·21 / 21·23·28·2966%Game 6May 15NO 80@SA 9924·27·12·17 / 36·22·20·2160%Game 7May 19SA 91@NO 8223·28·20·20 / 20·22·14·2634%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
6 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
59.8%
Brier over the series
0.1740
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.