First Round · 2007-08
6 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
WSH 86@
CLE 9324·22·23·17 / 19·27·19·2863%Game 2Apr 21WSH 86@CLE 11622·18·23·23 / 27·26·33·3066%Game 3Apr 24CLE 72@WSH 10817·16·18·21 / 21·28·28·3158%Game 4Apr 27CLE 100@WSH 9724·30·26·20 / 28·16·29·2435%Game 5Apr 30WSH 88@CLE 8723·22·24·19 / 16·27·22·2235%Game 6May 2CLE 105@WSH 8827·29·23·26 / 31·17·16·2436%
WSH 86@CLE 9324·22·23·17 / 19·27·19·2863%Game 2Apr 21WSH 86@CLE 11622·18·23·23 / 27·26·33·3066%Game 3Apr 24CLE 72@WSH 10817·16·18·21 / 21·28·28·3158%Game 4Apr 27CLE 100@WSH 9724·30·26·20 / 28·16·29·2435%Game 5Apr 30WSH 88@CLE 8723·22·24·19 / 16·27·22·2235%Game 6May 2CLE 105@WSH 8827·29·23·26 / 31·17·16·2436%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.8%
Brier over the series
0.2817
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.