Conference Semifinals · 2007-08
7 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
CLE 72@
BOS 7615·22·15·20 / 25·16·12·2382%Game 2May 8CLE 73@BOS 8924·12·15·22 / 17·27·26·1983%Game 3May 10BOS 84@CLE 10813·22·28·21 / 32·20·27·2940%Game 4May 12BOS 77@CLE 8821·22·22·12 / 23·22·23·2047%Game 5May 14CLE 89@BOS 9623·23·17·26 / 18·25·29·2475%Game 6May 16BOS 69@CLE 7418·15·17·19 / 18·24·17·1550%Game 7May 18CLE 92@BOS 9713·27·28·24 / 18·32·23·2474%
CLE 72@BOS 7615·22·15·20 / 25·16·12·2382%Game 2May 8CLE 73@BOS 8924·12·15·22 / 17·27·26·1983%Game 3May 10BOS 84@CLE 10813·22·28·21 / 32·20·27·2940%Game 4May 12BOS 77@CLE 8821·22·22·12 / 23·22·23·2047%Game 5May 14CLE 89@BOS 9623·23·17·26 / 18·25·29·2475%Game 6May 16BOS 69@CLE 7418·15·17·19 / 18·24·17·1550%Game 7May 18CLE 92@BOS 9713·27·28·24 / 18·32·23·2474%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
64.5%
Brier over the series
0.1538
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.