First Round · 2007-08
5 games · New Orleans Pelicans advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
DAL 92@
NO 10426·26·20·20 / 19·21·36·2870%Game 2Apr 22DAL 103@NO 12729·22·28·24 / 39·28·32·2872%Game 3Apr 25NO 87@DAL 9716·24·23·24 / 23·24·27·2356%Game 4Apr 27NO 97@DAL 8423·25·28·21 / 30·14·22·1842%Game 5Apr 29DAL 94@NO 9922·17·24·31 / 28·26·17·2876%
DAL 92@NO 10426·26·20·20 / 19·21·36·2870%Game 2Apr 22DAL 103@NO 12729·22·28·24 / 39·28·32·2872%Game 3Apr 25NO 87@DAL 9716·24·23·24 / 23·24·27·2356%Game 4Apr 27NO 97@DAL 8423·25·28·21 / 30·14·22·1842%Game 5Apr 29DAL 94@NO 9922·17·24·31 / 28·26·17·2876%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
62.9%
Brier over the series
0.1532
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.