Conference Semifinals · 2008-09
7 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
HOU 100@
LAL 9221·22·27·30 / 18·22·27·2522%Game 2May 6HOU 98@LAL 11125·32·20·21 / 39·18·29·2573%Game 3May 8LAL 108@HOU 9430·20·24·34 / 28·20·14·3239%Game 4May 10LAL 87@HOU 9916·20·18·33 / 29·25·29·1656%Game 5May 12HOU 78@LAL 11824·15·15·24 / 35·29·30·2473%Game 6May 14LAL 80@HOU 9515·21·29·15 / 27·25·22·2153%Game 7May 17HOU 70@LAL 8912·19·19·20 / 22·29·18·2074%
HOU 100@LAL 9221·22·27·30 / 18·22·27·2522%Game 2May 6HOU 98@LAL 11125·32·20·21 / 39·18·29·2573%Game 3May 8LAL 108@HOU 9430·20·24·34 / 28·20·14·3239%Game 4May 10LAL 87@HOU 9916·20·18·33 / 29·25·29·1656%Game 5May 12HOU 78@LAL 11824·15·15·24 / 35·29·30·2473%Game 6May 14LAL 80@HOU 9515·21·29·15 / 27·25·22·2153%Game 7May 17HOU 70@LAL 8912·19·19·20 / 22·29·18·2074%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
55.7%
Brier over the series
0.2302
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.