First Round · 2008-09
6 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
HOU 108@
POR 8134·28·23·23 / 23·21·14·2326%Game 2Apr 21HOU 103@POR 10726·25·21·31 / 28·25·19·3567%Game 3Apr 24POR 83@HOU 8615·22·22·24 / 21·27·18·2069%Game 4Apr 26POR 88@HOU 8922·22·26·18 / 30·20·14·2570%Game 5Apr 28HOU 77@POR 8826·17·19·15 / 29·21·14·2465%Game 6Apr 30POR 76@HOU 9219·18·19·20 / 21·31·22·1866%
HOU 108@POR 8134·28·23·23 / 23·21·14·2326%Game 2Apr 21HOU 103@POR 10726·25·21·31 / 28·25·19·3567%Game 3Apr 24POR 83@HOU 8615·22·22·24 / 21·27·18·2069%Game 4Apr 26POR 88@HOU 8922·22·26·18 / 30·20·14·2570%Game 5Apr 28HOU 77@POR 8826·17·19·15 / 29·21·14·2465%Game 6Apr 30POR 76@HOU 9219·18·19·20 / 21·31·22·1866%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
60.4%
Brier over the series
0.1807
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.