NBA Finals · 2008-09
5 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 4
ORL 75@
LAL 10024·19·15·17 / 22·31·29·1874%Game 2Jun 7ORL 96@LAL 101OT15·20·30·23 / 15·25·23·2578%Game 3Jun 9LAL 104@ORL 10831·23·21·29 / 27·32·22·2757%Game 4Jun 11LAL 99@ORL 91OT20·17·30·20 / 24·25·14·2441%Game 5Jun 14LAL 99@ORL 8626·30·20·23 / 28·18·15·2544%
ORL 75@LAL 10024·19·15·17 / 22·31·29·1874%Game 2Jun 7ORL 96@LAL 101OT15·20·30·23 / 15·25·23·2578%Game 3Jun 9LAL 104@ORL 10831·23·21·29 / 27·32·22·2757%Game 4Jun 11LAL 99@ORL 91OT20·17·30·20 / 24·25·14·2441%Game 5Jun 14LAL 99@ORL 8626·30·20·23 / 28·18·15·2544%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
58.8%
Brier over the series
0.1921
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.