First Round · 2008-09
5 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
UTAH 100@
LAL 11319·21·33·27 / 30·32·24·2784%Game 2Apr 21UTAH 109@LAL 11929·26·23·31 / 41·25·23·3086%Game 3Apr 23LAL 86@UTAH 8817·22·29·18 / 26·17·17·2844%Game 4Apr 25LAL 108@UTAH 9420·40·28·20 / 25·28·16·2555%Game 5Apr 27UTAH 96@LAL 10726·17·20·33 / 26·30·26·2585%
UTAH 100@LAL 11319·21·33·27 / 30·32·24·2784%Game 2Apr 21UTAH 109@LAL 11929·26·23·31 / 41·25·23·3086%Game 3Apr 23LAL 86@UTAH 8817·22·29·18 / 26·17·17·2844%Game 4Apr 25LAL 108@UTAH 9420·40·28·20 / 25·28·16·2555%Game 5Apr 27UTAH 96@LAL 10726·17·20·33 / 26·30·26·2585%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
71.1%
Brier over the series
0.1156
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.