Conference Finals · 2008-09
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 19
DEN 103@
LAL 10531·23·22·27 / 23·32·19·3171%Game 2May 21DEN 106@LAL 10323·31·26·26 / 31·24·26·2226%Game 3May 23LAL 103@DEN 9726·22·23·32 / 28·24·27·1835%Game 4May 25LAL 101@DEN 12019·26·21·35 / 22·30·25·4362%Game 5May 27DEN 94@LAL 10325·31·20·18 / 25·31·20·2770%Game 6May 29LAL 119@DEN 9225·28·30·36 / 20·20·27·2538%
DEN 103@LAL 10531·23·22·27 / 23·32·19·3171%Game 2May 21DEN 106@LAL 10323·31·26·26 / 31·24·26·2226%Game 3May 23LAL 103@DEN 9726·22·23·32 / 28·24·27·1835%Game 4May 25LAL 101@DEN 12019·26·21·35 / 22·30·25·4362%Game 5May 27DEN 94@LAL 10325·31·20·18 / 25·31·20·2770%Game 6May 29LAL 119@DEN 9225·28·30·36 / 20·20·27·2538%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
50.4%
Brier over the series
0.2786
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.