Conference Semifinals · 2008-09
7 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
ORL 95@
BOS 9024·30·24·17 / 19·17·26·2832%Game 2May 6ORL 94@BOS 11221·25·18·30 / 26·35·25·2668%Game 3May 8BOS 96@ORL 11718·23·28·27 / 22·31·25·3964%Game 4May 10BOS 95@ORL 9425·23·31·16 / 28·18·25·2333%Game 5May 12ORL 88@BOS 9222·23·22·21 / 16·21·22·3368%Game 6May 14BOS 75@ORL 8325·21·16·13 / 22·23·16·2264%Game 7May 17ORL 101@BOS 8227·18·21·35 / 17·21·23·2133%
ORL 95@BOS 9024·30·24·17 / 19·17·26·2832%Game 2May 6ORL 94@BOS 11221·25·18·30 / 26·35·25·2668%Game 3May 8BOS 96@ORL 11718·23·28·27 / 22·31·25·3964%Game 4May 10BOS 95@ORL 9425·23·31·16 / 28·18·25·2333%Game 5May 12ORL 88@BOS 9222·23·22·21 / 16·21·22·3368%Game 6May 14BOS 75@ORL 8325·21·16·13 / 22·23·16·2264%Game 7May 17ORL 101@BOS 8227·18·21·35 / 17·21·23·2133%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
51.5%
Brier over the series
0.2623
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.