First Round · 2008-09
6 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
PHI 100@
ORL 9827·19·19·35 / 25·25·29·1919%Game 2Apr 22PHI 87@ORL 9621·18·23·25 / 21·25·24·2679%Game 3Apr 24ORL 94@PHI 9621·28·28·17 / 27·33·20·1649%Game 4Apr 26ORL 84@PHI 8124·12·28·20 / 22·14·19·2650%Game 5Apr 28PHI 78@ORL 9120·19·21·18 / 21·24·24·2277%Game 6Apr 30ORL 114@PHI 8930·32·25·27 / 19·29·24·1754%
PHI 100@ORL 9827·19·19·35 / 25·25·29·1919%Game 2Apr 22PHI 87@ORL 9621·18·23·25 / 21·25·24·2679%Game 3Apr 24ORL 94@PHI 9621·28·28·17 / 27·33·20·1649%Game 4Apr 26ORL 84@PHI 8124·12·28·20 / 22·14·19·2650%Game 5Apr 28PHI 78@ORL 9120·19·21·18 / 21·24·24·2277%Game 6Apr 30ORL 114@PHI 8930·32·25·27 / 19·29·24·1754%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
54.7%
Brier over the series
0.2455
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.