Conference Finals · 2008-09
6 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1May 20
ORL 107@
CLE 10619·29·30·29 / 33·30·19·2418%Game 2May 22ORL 95@CLE 9616·28·25·26 / 30·26·19·2178%Game 3May 24CLE 89@ORL 9917·24·22·26 / 24·18·26·3158%Game 4May 26CLE 114@ORL 116OT25·33·21·21 / 21·29·28·2259%Game 5May 28ORL 102@CLE 11218·37·24·23 / 35·21·22·3473%Game 6May 30CLE 90@ORL 10325·15·30·20 / 30·28·28·1759%
ORL 107@CLE 10619·29·30·29 / 33·30·19·2418%Game 2May 22ORL 95@CLE 9616·28·25·26 / 30·26·19·2178%Game 3May 24CLE 89@ORL 9917·24·22·26 / 24·18·26·3158%Game 4May 26CLE 114@ORL 116OT25·33·21·21 / 21·29·28·2259%Game 5May 28ORL 102@CLE 11218·37·24·23 / 35·21·22·3473%Game 6May 30CLE 90@ORL 10325·15·30·20 / 30·28·28·1759%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
57.5%
Brier over the series
0.2174
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.