Conference Semifinals · 2008-09
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 5
ATL 72@
CLE 9921·23·17·11 / 25·24·28·2290%Game 2May 7ATL 85@CLE 10517·18·20·30 / 26·33·26·2089%Game 3May 9CLE 97@ATL 8222·25·25·25 / 18·28·19·1766%Game 4May 11CLE 84@ATL 7415·25·22·22 / 22·16·19·1767%
ATL 72@CLE 9921·23·17·11 / 25·24·28·2290%Game 2May 7ATL 85@CLE 10517·18·20·30 / 26·33·26·2089%Game 3May 9CLE 97@ATL 8222·25·25·25 / 18·28·19·1766%Game 4May 11CLE 84@ATL 7415·25·22·22 / 22·16·19·1767%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
78.0%
Brier over the series
0.0617
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.