First Round · 2008-09
5 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
DAL 105@
SA 9718·27·29·31 / 29·20·25·2330%Game 2Apr 20DAL 84@SA 10519·27·17·21 / 30·27·28·2067%Game 3Apr 23SA 67@DAL 8816·14·12·25 / 27·19·29·1364%Game 4Apr 25SA 90@DAL 9929·26·16·19 / 32·19·29·1967%Game 5Apr 28DAL 106@SA 9331·21·30·24 / 20·28·19·2635%
DAL 105@SA 9718·27·29·31 / 29·20·25·2330%Game 2Apr 20DAL 84@SA 10519·27·17·21 / 30·27·28·2067%Game 3Apr 23SA 67@DAL 8816·14·12·25 / 27·19·29·1364%Game 4Apr 25SA 90@DAL 9929·26·16·19 / 32·19·29·1967%Game 5Apr 28DAL 106@SA 9331·21·30·24 / 20·28·19·2635%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
52.5%
Brier over the series
0.2531
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.