First Round · 2008-09
7 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
CHI 105@
BOS 103OT28·25·18·26 / 28·16·28·2519%Game 2Apr 20CHI 115@BOS 11829·32·26·28 / 35·23·30·3080%Game 3Apr 23BOS 107@CHI 8632·27·24·24 / 21·16·21·2847%Game 4Apr 26BOS 118@CHI 1212OT19·27·24·26 / 18·27·20·3149%Game 5Apr 28CHI 104@BOS 106OT21·26·23·23 / 23·21·22·2781%Game 6Apr 30BOS 127@CHI 1283OT26·31·19·25 / 37·22·24·1849%Game 7May 2CHI 99@BOS 10928·11·33·27 / 23·29·26·3180%
CHI 105@BOS 103OT28·25·18·26 / 28·16·28·2519%Game 2Apr 20CHI 115@BOS 11829·32·26·28 / 35·23·30·3080%Game 3Apr 23BOS 107@CHI 8632·27·24·24 / 21·16·21·2847%Game 4Apr 26BOS 118@CHI 1212OT19·27·24·26 / 18·27·20·3149%Game 5Apr 28CHI 104@BOS 106OT21·26·23·23 / 23·21·22·2781%Game 6Apr 30BOS 127@CHI 1283OT26·31·19·25 / 37·22·24·1849%Game 7May 2CHI 99@BOS 10928·11·33·27 / 23·29·26·3180%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
57.8%
Brier over the series
0.2249
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.