First Round · 2008-09
5 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
NO 84@
DEN 11325·22·22·15 / 27·28·32·2677%Game 2Apr 22NO 93@DEN 10825·19·27·22 / 27·25·29·2781%Game 3Apr 25DEN 93@NO 9526·21·25·21 / 21·29·27·1850%Game 4Apr 27DEN 121@NO 6336·25·27·33 / 15·24·11·1349%Game 5Apr 29NO 86@DEN 10727·22·17·20 / 24·25·31·2785%
NO 84@DEN 11325·22·22·15 / 27·28·32·2677%Game 2Apr 22NO 93@DEN 10825·19·27·22 / 27·25·29·2781%Game 3Apr 25DEN 93@NO 9526·21·25·21 / 21·29·27·1850%Game 4Apr 27DEN 121@NO 6336·25·27·33 / 15·24·11·1349%Game 5Apr 29NO 86@DEN 10727·22·17·20 / 24·25·31·2785%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
68.2%
Brier over the series
0.1252
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.