First Round · 2008-09
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
DET 84@
CLE 10225·20·20·19 / 30·27·21·2488%Game 2Apr 21DET 82@CLE 9414·18·18·32 / 23·23·31·1789%Game 3Apr 24CLE 79@DET 6818·26·9·26 / 18·19·16·1565%Game 4Apr 26CLE 99@DET 7826·25·22·26 / 27·15·18·1866%
DET 84@CLE 10225·20·20·19 / 30·27·21·2488%Game 2Apr 21DET 82@CLE 9414·18·18·32 / 23·23·31·1789%Game 3Apr 24CLE 79@DET 6818·26·9·26 / 18·19·16·1565%Game 4Apr 26CLE 99@DET 7826·25·22·26 / 27·15·18·1866%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
77.3%
Brier over the series
0.0651
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.