Conference Semifinals · 2008-09
5 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
DAL 95@
DEN 10924·23·28·20 / 16·35·31·2771%Game 2May 5DAL 105@DEN 11722·33·28·22 / 30·28·28·3174%Game 3May 9DEN 106@DAL 10520·28·31·27 / 20·25·35·2541%Game 4May 11DEN 117@DAL 11934·29·27·27 / 23·30·32·3459%Game 5May 13DAL 110@DEN 12427·28·25·30 / 34·35·25·3076%
DAL 95@DEN 10924·23·28·20 / 16·35·31·2771%Game 2May 5DAL 105@DEN 11722·33·28·22 / 30·28·28·3174%Game 3May 9DEN 106@DAL 10520·28·31·27 / 20·25·35·2541%Game 4May 11DEN 117@DAL 11934·29·27·27 / 23·30·32·3459%Game 5May 13DAL 110@DEN 12427·28·25·30 / 34·35·25·3076%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.9%
Brier over the series
0.1471
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.