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Hardwood
2009-10 season

NBA Finals · 2009-10

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers

4

final
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

3

7 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced

Every game

Game 1Jun 3Boston CelticsBOS 89@Los Angeles LakersLAL 10221·20·23·25 / 26·24·34·1868%Game 2Jun 6Boston CelticsBOS 103@Los Angeles LakersLAL 9429·25·18·31 / 22·26·24·2230%Game 3Jun 8Los Angeles LakersLAL 91@Boston CelticsBOS 8426·26·15·24 / 17·23·21·2332%Game 4Jun 10Los Angeles LakersLAL 89@Boston CelticsBOS 9616·29·17·27 / 19·23·18·3664%Game 5Jun 13Los Angeles LakersLAL 86@Boston CelticsBOS 9220·19·26·21 / 22·23·28·1966%Game 6Jun 15Boston CelticsBOS 67@Los Angeles LakersLAL 8918·13·20·16 / 28·23·25·1364%Game 7Jun 17Boston CelticsBOS 79@Los Angeles LakersLAL 8323·17·17·22 / 14·20·19·3067%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

55.8%

Brier over the series

0.2201

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works