Conference Finals · 2009-10
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
PHX 107@
LAL 12826·29·24·28 / 35·27·31·3559%Game 2May 19PHX 112@LAL 12424·32·34·22 / 36·29·25·3464%Game 3May 23LAL 109@PHX 11832·15·37·25 / 29·25·32·3270%Game 4May 25LAL 106@PHX 11523·32·29·22 / 23·41·21·3071%Game 5May 27PHX 101@LAL 10321·24·27·29 / 24·29·25·2564%Game 6May 29LAL 111@PHX 10337·28·26·20 / 34·19·21·2930%
PHX 107@LAL 12826·29·24·28 / 35·27·31·3559%Game 2May 19PHX 112@LAL 12424·32·34·22 / 36·29·25·3464%Game 3May 23LAL 109@PHX 11832·15·37·25 / 29·25·32·3270%Game 4May 25LAL 106@PHX 11523·32·29·22 / 23·41·21·3071%Game 5May 27PHX 101@LAL 10321·24·27·29 / 24·29·25·2564%Game 6May 29LAL 111@PHX 10337·28·26·20 / 34·19·21·2930%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.6%
Brier over the series
0.1828
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.