Conference Semifinals · 2009-10
4 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
UTAH 99@
LAL 10423·22·28·26 / 30·23·28·2365%Game 2May 4UTAH 103@LAL 11123·23·31·26 / 27·31·29·2466%Game 3May 8LAL 111@UTAH 11017·33·32·29 / 22·32·26·3035%Game 4May 10LAL 111@UTAH 9629·29·22·31 / 24·17·26·2937%
UTAH 99@LAL 10423·22·28·26 / 30·23·28·2365%Game 2May 4UTAH 103@LAL 11123·23·31·26 / 27·31·29·2466%Game 3May 8LAL 111@UTAH 11017·33·32·29 / 22·32·26·3035%Game 4May 10LAL 111@UTAH 9629·29·22·31 / 24·17·26·2937%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
50.7%
Brier over the series
0.2650
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.