Conference Finals · 2009-10
6 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1May 16
BOS 92@
ORL 8822·19·33·18 / 14·18·26·3015%Game 2May 18BOS 95@ORL 9227·26·25·17 / 28·23·19·2219%Game 3May 22ORL 71@BOS 9412·22·13·24 / 27·24·24·1954%Game 4May 24ORL 96@BOS 92OT31·20·16·19 / 26·21·21·1840%Game 5May 26BOS 92@ORL 11327·22·26·17 / 31·26·27·2974%Game 6May 28ORL 84@BOS 9619·23·19·23 / 30·25·27·1454%
BOS 92@ORL 8822·19·33·18 / 14·18·26·3015%Game 2May 18BOS 95@ORL 9227·26·25·17 / 28·23·19·2219%Game 3May 22ORL 71@BOS 9412·22·13·24 / 27·24·24·1954%Game 4May 24ORL 96@BOS 92OT31·20·16·19 / 26·21·21·1840%Game 5May 26BOS 92@ORL 11327·22·26·17 / 31·26·27·2974%Game 6May 28ORL 84@BOS 9619·23·19·23 / 30·25·27·1454%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
42.6%
Brier over the series
0.3725
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.