First Round · 2009-10
4 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
CHA 89@
ORL 9820·23·23·23 / 31·28·17·2284%Game 2Apr 21CHA 77@ORL 9214·16·25·22 / 18·23·34·1784%Game 3Apr 24ORL 90@CHA 8629·12·25·24 / 27·19·20·2057%Game 4Apr 26ORL 99@CHA 9023·20·28·28 / 25·20·23·2258%
CHA 89@ORL 9820·23·23·23 / 31·28·17·2284%Game 2Apr 21CHA 77@ORL 9214·16·25·22 / 18·23·34·1784%Game 3Apr 24ORL 90@CHA 8629·12·25·24 / 27·19·20·2057%Game 4Apr 26ORL 99@CHA 9023·20·28·28 / 25·20·23·2258%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
70.8%
Brier over the series
0.1033
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.