First Round · 2009-10
7 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
MIL 92@
ATL 10217·23·30·22 / 34·28·19·2172%Game 2Apr 20MIL 86@ATL 9620·26·16·24 / 28·24·24·2075%Game 3Apr 24ATL 89@MIL 10719·21·17·32 / 36·16·26·2956%Game 4Apr 26ATL 104@MIL 11125·25·24·30 / 28·26·31·2660%Game 5Apr 28MIL 91@ATL 8724·19·18·30 / 23·23·23·1830%Game 6Apr 30ATL 83@MIL 6916·15·29·23 / 19·15·11·2437%Game 7May 2MIL 74@ATL 9513·27·20·14 / 20·33·20·2271%
MIL 92@ATL 10217·23·30·22 / 34·28·19·2172%Game 2Apr 20MIL 86@ATL 9620·26·16·24 / 28·24·24·2075%Game 3Apr 24ATL 89@MIL 10719·21·17·32 / 36·16·26·2956%Game 4Apr 26ATL 104@MIL 11125·25·24·30 / 28·26·31·2660%Game 5Apr 28MIL 91@ATL 8724·19·18·30 / 23·23·23·1830%Game 6Apr 30ATL 83@MIL 6916·15·29·23 / 19·15·11·2437%Game 7May 2MIL 74@ATL 9513·27·20·14 / 20·33·20·2271%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
57.2%
Brier over the series
0.2100
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.