Conference Semifinals · 2009-10
4 games · Orlando Magic advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
ATL 71@
ORL 11423·10·11·27 / 25·28·32·2982%Game 2May 6ATL 98@ORL 11227·30·26·15 / 32·17·35·2883%Game 3May 8ORL 105@ATL 7528·24·27·26 / 18·15·22·2054%Game 4May 10ORL 98@ATL 8434·19·22·23 / 23·22·21·1859%
ATL 71@ORL 11423·10·11·27 / 25·28·32·2982%Game 2May 6ATL 98@ORL 11227·30·26·15 / 32·17·35·2883%Game 3May 8ORL 105@ATL 7528·24·27·26 / 18·15·22·2054%Game 4May 10ORL 98@ATL 8434·19·22·23 / 23·22·21·1859%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
69.7%
Brier over the series
0.1094
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.